English
I really doubt, purchasing power down. Our study on the micro-level shows that money is shifting, from the upper middle class to the people's economy. And the elites are having a hard time now, because their role as "Middleman" faded due to Disrutive Innovation, then they shouted "purchasing power is down".
I checked at three points:
1. JNE. This is a logistics network, whose market share is above that of PT Pos, and the name of the company is mentioned by all online businesses. At JNE I got data, that the number of employees has been continuously added to serve the collection and delivery of logistics. The addition of human resources in the last few months has reached 500 people.
Not many people know that consumers and rice traders in Kalimantan are now buying more rice and cooking oil via Tokopedia, from Surabaya, Lombok, Makassar etc. Not many people also know that air cargo transportation from Solo is increasing rapidly for the delivery of garments and craft goods. Also from other cities. That is, small businesses and the people are starting to benefit.
2. Retailers. Aprindo reported that the sales achieved by its members in the first semester dropped by 20%. This is starting to follow the pattern of taxi transportation, which has decreased by around 30-40% last year. Is it because of purchasing power..?? No..!! The reason is Shifting to Taxi Online..!! It's the same as retail and hotels, which are switching from conventional to online.
That is, it is not purchasing power that has dropped, nor is it because the desire to buy has decreased, but shifting has occurred.
3. Major producer of FMCG. Almost all that we met admitted that their turnover had increased by 30-40%. Starting from wheat flour, we checked with Bogasari, to medicines (Consumer Health), we checked with Kalbe. The demand is still growing rapidly. However, manufacturers such as Gulaku claim to have dropped because of the HET policy which is controlled by the government.
Then, who's income has decreased, and why has it decreased..??
The answer is, what goes down is the big wholesalers who used to pay producers backwards 45 days-3 months. Among them are large supermarkets, which usually "work" MSMEs by delaying payments. Now with the emergence of the online world, the big supermarkets are in short supply. Large manufacturers are also holding back their stocks, preferring to open new distribution channels.
Thanks to the sea highway, now FMCG distributors in Lombok, NTT, Maluku, Sulawesi, etc., can get goods directly from producers without going through middlemen in JKT, Bandung, Surabaya, etc.
Now the acceptance of the big Middlemen in Java Island is losing the market. Likewise big supermarkets, which used to sell to agents in the past. Now they are also limited, because producers are starting to organize their distribution network, thanks to good infrastructure, and more regular arrivals of ships (sea highway policy).
That's what they complain about "Purchasing Power Down". In fact, the market is shifting and equalization is taking place, even though it hasn't reached the bottom completely (the underprivileged group). However, the "wealth" of the established groups in Java Island (especially the Middlemen) is being eroded.
Hopefully we can see a little more clearly, that the construction of infrastructure and the sea highway will have a big shifting impact, and in the long run, hopefully it will be good for equity. All that remains is "Tax Policy" to deal with "The Plutocrats" (the super-rich), who are few in number, but control many.
Regards.
Source: Javanese Satay
Photo: Special
Bahasa Indonesia
By. Rhenald Kasali.
Saya kok ragu, daya beli turun. Kajian yg kami lakukan pada dataran mikro, menunjukkan uang sedang berpindah (Shifting), dari kalangan menengah ke atas, ke ekonomi rakyat. Dan para elit sekarang sedang sulit, karena peran mereka sebagai "Middleman" pudar akibat Disrutive Innovation, lalu mereka teriakkan "daya beli turun".
Saya cek di tiga titik :
1. JNE. Ini adalah jaringan logistik, yg market share-nya sudah di atas PT Pos, dan nama perusahaannya disebut oleh semua bisnis online. Di JNE saya dapat data, bahwa pegawainya ditambah terus utk melayani pengambilan dan pengiriman logistik. Penambahan SDM dalam bbrp bulan terakhir mencapai 500 orang.
Tak banyak orang yg tahu, bahwa konsumen dan pedagang beras di Kalimantan, kini lebih banyak membeli beras dan minyak goreng via tokopedia, dari Surabaya, Lombok, Makasar dll. Juga tak banyak yang tahu, bahwa angkutan kargo udara dari Solo, naik pesat utk pengiriman garmen dan barang2 kerajinan. Juga dari kota2 lainnya. Artinya, usaha2 kecil dan kerakyatan mulai diuntungkan.
2. Retailer. Aprindo melaporkan, penjualan yg dicapai anggotanya semester 1 sales drop 20%. Ini mulai mengikuti pola angkutan Taksi, yg sudah turun sekitar 30-40% tahun lalu. Apakah karena daya beli..?? Bukan..!! Penyebabnya adalah Shifting ke Taxi Online..!! Sama halnya retail dan hotel, yg beralih dari konvensional ke online.
Artinya, bukan daya beli yang drop, bukan juga karena keinginan membeli yang turun, melainkan terjadi Shifting.
3. Produsen besar FMCG. Hampir semua yg kami temui mengakui, omset mereka naik 30-40%. Mulai dari tepung terigu kami cek ke Bogasari, hingga obat2an (Consumer Health) kaki cek ke Kalbe. Demandnya masih naik pesat. Tetapi produsen seperti Gulaku, mengaku drop karena kebijakan HET yg dikontrol pemerintah.
Lalu, siapa yg pendapatannya turun, dan mengapa turun..??
Jawabnya, yg turun adalah grosir2 besar yg biasa membayar kepada produsen mundur 45 hari-3 bulan. Diantaranya adalah supermarket2 besar, yg biasa "ngerjain" UMKM dengan menunda pembayaran. Kini dengan munculnya dunia online, maka supermarket besar kekurangan pasokan. Produsen besar juga menahan stoknya, lebih mengutamakan membuka jalur distribusi baru.
Berkat Tol laut, kini para agen-agen penyalur FMCG yg berada di Lombok, NTT, Maluku, Sulawesi dll, bisa mendapat barang langsung dari produsen tanpa melalui Middleman di JKT, Bandung, Surabaya dll.
Kini penerimaan para Middleman besar di P. Jawa itu kehilangan pasar. Demikian juga supermarket2 besar, yg terbiasa menjual kepada para agen di masa lalu. Kini mereka juga dibatasi, karena para produsen mulai menata jaringan distribusinya, berkat infrastruktur yg bagus, dan kedatangan kapal yg lebih rutin (kebijakan tol laut).
Itulah yg mereka keluhkan dengan "Daya Beli Turun". In fact, pasar bergeser dan pemerataan tengah terjadi, walaupun belum sampai ke bawah sekali (kelompok prasejahtera). Namun "kekayaan" kelompok mapan di P. Jawa (khususnya para Middleman) tengah tergerus.
Semoga kita bisa sedikit lebih jernih melihat, bahwa pembangunan infrastruktur dan tol laut ini, menimbulkan dampak shifting yg besar, dan dlm jangka panjang, mudah2an baik bagi pemerataan. Tinggal "Tax Policy" utk menangani "The Plutocrats" (kalangan superkaya) yg jumlahnya sedikit, tapi menguasai banyak.
Salam.
Sumber : Sate Jawa
Foto : Istimewa
